essay - GMAT: Argument 32

The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm:

Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker fs consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker fs consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therefore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

Answer:
The author says that the company should discuss a strategy of shifting the investment from the coffee brand to the cola brand. The based argument is twofold: first, recent trends for both cola and coffee toward population ages supports the conclusion, and then a prediction that older adults will increase for the next 20 years also supports his suggestion. The argument, however, is unconvincing because of two unwarranted assumption that the argument is relying on.

The first unwarranted assumption is that the trend of consumer's preference will continue for the next 20 years. Admittedly, a trend that has lasted for the past 40 years can be considered to last continuously, but it cannot also be denied that the trend may change in the future. Therefore, the author needs to show clear information that the argument can stand on.

The second unwarranted assumption is that the author assumes that young population will decrease for the next 20 years whereas old one will increase. But the article doesn't show the information (it says old population will increase, but dome fs say about young one). It can be possible that whereas the number of older adults will increase, young people will also increase. Since the argument is based on this unwarranted assumption, the argument is weak.

In conclusion, although the reasoning seems rational and logical, in terms of basing on two unwarranted assumption, the argument is unconvincing. To strengthen the argument, and to make his business associates to consider his proposal, the author needs to provide evidence that supports the two assumptions, such as an analyst report that predicts that the current trend will last for next more than two decades and the exact demographic statistical data that shows that young population will declaim.