essay - GMAT: Argument 15

The following appeared as a part of an advertisement for Adams, who is seeking reelection as governor:

"Reelect Adams, and you will be voting for proven leadership in improving the state's economy. Over the past year alone, 70 percent of the state's workers have had increases in their wages, 5,000 new jobs have been created, and six corporations have located their headquarters here. Most of the respondents in a recent poll said they believed that the economy is likely to continue to improve if Adams is reelected. Adams's opponent, Zebulon, would lead our state in the wrong direction, because Zebulon disagrees with many of Adams's economic policies."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

Answer:
The writer of the advertisement concludes that Adams is the best choice for the residents in terms of the leadership in the status's economy. He cites previous year's three numerical data: increased wages, created new jobs, and newly located headquarters. He also mentions that most of the respondents in a recent poll show strong supports to Adams, and states that Adams's opponent would be a bad choice since he opposes Adams's economic policies. Since the argument lacks several important information, the writer fails to convince the readers to vote for Adams.

First, the argument fails to show a causal relationship between Adams's capability in economic policy and three statistical data that the writer regards as Adams's achievements. Certainly, salary increases or a high employment rate is a good symptom for the economy. However, since the writer fails to show the causal relationship, the readers cannot judge whether the economic outcomes come from Adams's policies or not. For instance, if his tenure overlapped with a nationwide economic boom, regardless of his executed economic policies, the status of the state's economy showed good results. Therefore, in terms of the lack of the information, the argument is unconvincing.

Second, although the writer cites a recent poll to support his argument, he should have mentioned more information about the poll: who conducted the poll?, what kind of people most answered the question?, how were they asked in the poll?, and so forth. That is, generally the result of a poll varies with its methods, respondents, and intention of the conductor. For instance, if the survey was conducted by Adams's campaign and it asked only supporters of Adams, it's apparent that the result shows preference to Adams. Therefore, the writer needs to show such kind of data, and if he fails to do that, the argument becomes very weak.

In conclusion, since the writer fails to make the advertisement persuasive owing to the flaws I mentioned above, his conclusion, which is that Adams is the best candidate for the next governor and that his opponent, Zebulon, leads the state in the wrong direction, looks too weak to convince the readers to vote for Adams.