essay - GMAT: Argument 19

The following appeared as part of an article in the travel section of a newspaper:

"Over the past decade, the restaurant industry in the country of Spiessa has experienced unprecedented growth. This surge can be expected to continue in the coming years, fueled by recent social changes: personal incomes are rising, more leisure time is available, single-person households are more common, and people have a greater interest in gourmet food, as evidenced by a proliferation of publications on the subject."

Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

Answer:
The author concludes that the trend of restaurant industry's surge continues to the coming year. To support the conclusion, four social changes are articulated: increase of personal incomes, increase of leisure time, characteristic of household, and gourmet preference. The argument, however, has the following two serious flaws, so that it fails to convince the readers.

To begin with, the four factors cited to strengthen the conclusion are not necessarily connected with the future trend. That is, the four trends are what happened in recent years as the author wrote, and not guaranteed for the next year. For instance, if the current economic boost will abruptly end in January, the forecast would completely fail. Therefore, the author takes into consideration the future factor. At the very least, the author should alert the readers to the uncertainty of the future.

The next flaw is that the four trends are not necessarily related to the surge of restaurant industry. Of course, they are a certain level of relations to the industry's success. But there are still possibilities of becoming bad effects on the future. For instance, should people earn more money, the people would use their money for building their homes with kitchens, not for dining at restaurants. Or, should people spend more time in leisure, the people would use the time to spend at home making dinners by themselves. Furthermore, should more people live alone, the people would buy box meals at convenient stores. Finally, should people be more interested in gourmet food, they would go out of the city and have dinner at a fancy restaurant in the neighboring city. Therefore, the author should establish direct and firm causal relation between the four trends and the success of restaurant industry.

To sum up, although the author tries to make the readers believe that the future of restaurant industry is bright, the argument is so weak that it can't convince them. To strengthen the argument, the author should mention at least the future economic trend and causal relations between statistical data mentioned above and the result in the industry.