essay - GMAT: Argument 12

The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper:

"In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro.

"Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

Answer:
The author of this statement concludes that Varro, previous mayor, is superior to Montoya, current major, for residents of San Perdito by citing two statistical data, the population and the unemployment rate. This argument, however, has serious flaws.

First, although the population and the unemployment rate can be significant indicators for the governance, the argument completely misses mentioning the causes or the other aspects that caused the result. That is, although the author tries to connect the ability of mayor with the two statistical data, it's no doubt that there are the other aspects that affected the population and the unemployment rate, like industrial or demographical changes. For instance, if nationwide depression caused the decrease of the unemployment rate, we cannot say that Montoya is blamed for the decrease. Therefore, in order to make the argument more convincing, the author should include this kind of information.

Second, the argument doesn't mention the nature of a time lag. In other words, the argument is weak, because the causal relationship between a cause and a current result is not articulated. That is, the decrease of the population and the increase of the unemployment rate during the four year of Montoya's ruling might be cause by the preceding four years of Varro's ruling. Therefore, the author should clarify this causal relationship in order to strengthen the argument.

Finally, the author mentions that two businesses closed for each new business that has opened, but this citation makes no sense. Since this type of transformation is a normal phenomenon in the process of business evolution, this doesn't affect any decision of which mayor is better. Therefore, the author should not mention unnecessary statements in order to avoid reader's confusion.

To sum up, since the argument is weak in terms of points I mentioned above, the author should investigate underlying facts or include more information in the argument so that the reader can judge which mayor is eligible for them.